The Survival Strategy for the Japanese People Moving Forward.

This is an AI-translated transcript of an audio broadcast in Japanese. You can listen to the original audio at this link (in Japanese).

Summary:

The conference discussed the economic challenges facing young people in Japan and their future prospects. Speakers explained the changes Japan will face as President Trump re-takes office in 2025 and America embarks on a new path of independence. Of particular note was the trend in the national burden rate from the 1970s to 2020, noting that the social security contribution rate has increased from 5.4% to 19.9%. It was also emphasized that the younger generation (especially those in their 20s to under 40s) is in a tough economic situation and that Japan’s international status is declining. Speakers emphasized the importance of facing reality and taking the best action within limited options rather than reforming the system.

 

 Hello everyone. Welcome to this year’s first audio broadcast. As mentioned in the title, I will be discussing how we can survive in Japan moving forward and what our survival strategies will be. I plan to share this over several sessions through articles and audio broadcasts.

 

 Well, it’s 2025. This year, Trump made a return to the presidency, becoming the 47th president. As he has been saying for a while, it’s all about ‘America First.’ He is looking to move away from the idea of the U.S. acting as the world’s police, focusing solely on America’s national interests. So, that means America will operate independently. However, this shift is going to have a significant impact on Japan as well.

 

 Essentially, we have been treated as a subordinate nation to America, following its lead without much thought. It’s as if we’ve simply done whatever America, and to some extent the U.K., has dictated. This has been our trajectory since the post-war period, or perhaps even since the Meiji Restoration.

 

 There was a situation where the one governing Japan was, indeed, the U.S. But as this influence diminishes, the U.S. will also stop making comments about what Japan should or shouldn’t do. As a result, Japan will find itself in a position where it no longer knows who its leaders are or which direction it should take.

 

 During such times, you see, Japan’s political system is undergoing significant changes. To put it plainly, we’re heading towards a situation where people won’t know what to do. Even by 2025, with Trump being in power, he has left the U.S. and Io, and Mexico has renamed itself the Gulf of America, among other changes.

 

 Today’s news mentioned that there are retirement recommendations for 2 million government employees. As for the direction the United States is heading, it’s moving toward a sort of re-independence. It’s nearly confirmed that the United States will cease to exist and will become the Republic of America by 2026.

 

 What this really means is that while the phrase ‘re-independence of America’ may sound appealing, it actually refers to the bankruptcy of the USA, which has become untenable due to government debt and various other issues. They are essentially declaring the old United States bankrupt and planning to completely dismantle it, with the aim of rebuilding a better version of America.

 

 ‘Make America Great Again’ essentially means making America once again. This slogan reflects the intention to recreate America, which is part of what Trump is doing. That’s why he became president. Interestingly, he has filed for bankruptcy four times, which gives him a certain expertise in bankruptcy law.

 

 The idea is to forsake the United States and attempt to build a new nation. This is reminiscent of the American Revolution of 1776, which actually began in 1775 when the Continental Army was formed to fight against England for independence. However, the current movement is retracing that same process of independence in an effort to create a new America.

 

 Whether or not that’s truly the case is hard to say. There are many different people and facts out there, and I think various news reports highlight that. For now, though, by considering it this way, we can better understand what’s happening, and it helps explain things somewhat.

 

 So, considering, as a hypothetical scenario, that the United States plans to re-establish its independence exactly 250 years after 1776, it makes things much clearer. Now, what happens to Japan once the United States goes down that path? Well, Japan is in a pretty hopeless situation, to put it bluntly.

 

 The leader is absent, so there’s really no direction for Japan—it’s just been following America’s lead all along. As a result, the current bureaucratic and political systems are just about squeezing money from certain sources and nothing more.

 

 So, there are tax hikes, tax hikes, rising prices, and more tax hikes, along with increases in social security and health insurance fees. But honestly, all they seem to do is just keep taking our money. The policies concerning political and economic issues are out there, and I’m trying to communicate information specifically for people in their 40s and younger. Well, that’s the situation as it stands.

 

 In Japan, young people in their teens, twenties, and thirties—especially those under 40—are facing very tough economic conditions. Lately, this issue has been frequently discussed on social media platforms like Twitter.

 

 Well, we’re talking about the burden of social insurance contributions, such as pensions and national health insurance. Since people have been paying into these systems for a long time, it’s only natural that they expect to receive benefits like pensions now. 

 

 That document clearly shows that in the past, the burden of social insurance premiums relative to income was low. This information comes from materials provided by the Ministry of Finance. For instance, in the 1970s, there was talk of the national burden rate, which refers to the taxes relative to income.

 

 Regarding taxes and so on, the Ministry of Finance is trying to present data on social security burden rates, particularly for the 1970s and 1980s. The tax burden rate was 18.9% in 1970, and in 1980, it was 21%. In fact, the tax burden rate in 1970 was 18.9%, and in 2020, it rose to 26.3%. So, it hasn’t changed that much overall.

 

 In 1970, the social security burden rate was 5.4%, but by 2020 it is projected to rise to 19.9%. If someone earned 1 million yen back in the 1970s, they would only have to pay 50,000 yen in contributions. However, in 2020, with the same income of 1 million yen, they would be paying 200,000 yen.

 

 This is in regard to social insurance premiums. So, in 1970, the rate was 5.4%, in 1980 it rose to 8.8%, and even in 1990, it was still at 10.6%. When looking at various factors combined, the national burden rate was 24.3% in 1970, and it increased to 30.5% in 1980. By 2020, the national burden rate reached 46.1%, and it’s projected to increase even more by 2025. That’s why people are now referring to issues concerning the citizens.

 

 However, during that time, elderly individuals today who receive pensions are living under the illusion that they’re fairly sharing the burden.

 

 Back then, it was sufficient to pay that amount under the existing system, so in that sense, it can be said that they were just managing as best as they could without it. It’s not something extraordinary, but nowadays, those people are facing a fundamentally different situation, as price levels have risen compared to the past, and the population has also declined.

 In Japan’s distorted population pyramid, there’s an increasing burden to support the elderly. Wages haven’t really increased in the last 30 years, and on top of that, real wages have actually been declining.

 

 Well, those are the young people of Japan facing such harsh circumstances. I’m already 33, which makes it a bit tricky to determine whether I still qualify as young, but I do think it’s fair to consider those in their 20s as still being young.

 First and foremost, the situation is quite severe. Moreover, from an international perspective, Japan’s status has significantly declined. To put it bluntly, it’s best to regard Japan as just another low-cost country in Asia, similar to cheap turf.

 The notion that Japan is an economic powerhouse where hard work leads to decent rewards and a path to wealth is somewhat of a delusion. In fact, those who entertain such fantasies can be quite troublesome.

 Things aren’t great, and we definitely have our faults. But considering it’s a poor country in Asia, I guess coming to terms with it and adapting is what gives you a better chance of making it through. That’s basically the situation. 

 

 Well, I’ll share some resources on Twitter regarding the trends in the national burden rate from the Ministry of Finance. First of all, the government does provide this information properly, so there is a solid set of primary data released by the government.

 So, well, that’s true, and in fact, the government is publishing this information properly. Yet, it seems like the media largely ignores it. Since we live in the internet age, we can directly access original documents. The Ministry of Finance and the government provide these resources, so by looking at them, we can first recognize just how terrible these actions are.

 So, my intention is that trying to change policies or systems isn’t really a good direction. As an ordinary citizen, I find that I’m ultimately unable to participate in the decision-making process regarding policies. 

 When discussing modern democracy, one doesn’t openly admit that it’s merely a fiction designed to shift the blame for political failures onto the people. I’m pointing this out, but essentially, this social system is seen as an unchangeable constant; it’s not a variable that can be altered by individual will.

 

 Given this premise, I think it’s healthier to reflect on how we would approach this personally. Even if we talk about changing the system, it’s not as simple as saying, ‘Let’s make changes starting tomorrow.’ Meanwhile, my life’s time keeps dwindling, so trying to change the system or social structures may not actually be the best strategy.

 It’s important to have a good understanding of the system and to think about how to navigate it effectively and how to take appropriate actions. Keeping this perspective in mind inevitably brings us to issues like social security.

 

 The conversation revolves around political systems and the call to go vote. Many people seem to believe that they can change the system with their own efforts, but the speaker argues that this is largely unrealistic, suggesting that engaging in such actions is not very productive.

 

 Um, well, let’s say I participate in that election and vote democratically. The thing is, there are very few people in their 20s and 30s in Japan. If you Google Japan’s population pyramid, you’ll find it right away, so I encourage you to check it out. By the way, there’s a national census that takes place every five years.

 There was a survey conducted, and population data is available every five years. As of now, the most recent data is probably from 2020. In Japan, the largest age groups by population are people in their 70s and 40s. In fact, even when you combine the populations of those in their 20s and 30s, it still doesn’t match the population of those in their 40s.

 

 Indeed, because there are more people in their 70s, it essentially means that for every one person in their 20s or 30s, there are about four or five individuals in their 40s or 70s. This reflects the current demographic composition in Japan. Therefore, if decisions in elections are made through a majority vote of one person, one vote, it’s clear that the generations in their 40s and 70s will win.

 So, while it’s true that young people have a low voting rate, even if that rate were 100% and every citizen voted, they still wouldn’t win due to the demographic composition. This is a conclusion already established by census data and the makeup of the population, so there’s really nothing that can be done about it.

 So, in a way, considering changing that system or whatever is really not a smart move anymore. Therefore, I guess I can only just lie down and accept it. There was a trend in China called the ‘lying down tribe’ which was quite popular not too long ago, and that seems to capture the essence of the current attitude of young people in Japan.

 I suppose I have no choice but to do nothing and just laze around. It’s a completely rational economic decision to live efficiently, consuming as little energy as possible. However, even if that’s all I do, Japan is gradually declining. As a result, social security is starting to fall apart. If I don’t take action, and since none of you took action either, we might just end up abandoned with no options left. So, I want to avoid reaching that point.

 Well, we must keep moving forward. It’s true that we are compelled to lead a rather harsh life, but lamenting it won’t help us. So, first and foremost, we need to properly understand the facts and the realities of the systems we face. After that, the question of how we choose to act rests with all of you, myself included.

 Each person needs to think for themselves, and I want to share insights that can assist in that process. Up until last year, I had been hesitant to talk about topics like social systems and related issues.

 Well, how should I put it? It’s not really that simple. I was worried about getting caught up in political debates and how that might lead to complications, but this year, I’ve found myself quite frustrated about a lot of things. The tax system has some really terrible issues that need addressing, and while I know it can’t be changed right away, it’s important that everyone is aware of these matters.

 Yes, recognizing that, I realize I need to take various actions. Starting this year, I want to focus on sharing messages like this. For now, as I mentioned today, the fundamental circumstances for young people in Japan have changed significantly compared to the past.

 First, I think it’s a good idea to take that into consideration. Well, thank you again for watching. Goodbye.